FXUS64 KMAF 011141
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS BRINGING A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO REPORTING 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
HAD A MIX OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND AT TIMES LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32
DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN HEAVIEST...
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOW TO LOWER 40S OVER THE EASTERN CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE CEASED
IN GUADALUPE PASS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN TODAY
SO WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
SAID UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND TONIGHT AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING
LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 01/18Z AFTER WHICH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING...AND BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED DAWSON...MARTIN...WINKLER AND
WARD TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. FURTHER EAST...THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH RAIN...SLEET AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FOR ANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...SO
THESE AREAS WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD RESULT IN AN UNEXPECTED CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION PHASE IN ANY OF THE ABOVE LOCATIONS...SO UPDATES MAY
ABOUND LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST COLD FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME
OF THIS AIR WILL BE AT LEAST MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...IF NOT THE REAL
MCCOY...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS.
ALSO...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AND OR
FRIDAY. AT LEAST RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SNOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASSES ARE INFAMOUS FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMUP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE COLD AIR COULD JUST
STAY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. NEAR TERM CONCERNS OVERRODE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 37 31 44 28 / 80 40 30 0
CARLSBAD NM 36 31 48 26 / 70 30 10 20
DRYDEN TX 46 35 53 32 / 60 20 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 34 32 47 28 / 50 30 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 31 25 48 29 / 50 30 10 20
HOBBS NM 34 29 46 26 / 80 40 10 20
MARFA TX 33 25 48 24 / 50 30 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 35 30 44 25 / 80 40 20 0
ODESSA TX 34 29 42 25 / 70 40 20 0
WINK TX 35 31 49 28 / 70 30 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
HOWARD...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...SCURRY...
UPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAWSON...GAINES...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...WARD...
WINKLER.
&&
$$
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