FXUS64 KMRX 081456 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
956 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS
MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SERIES OF STRONG JETS WILL
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE-OHIO VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROPOPAUSE FOLDING INTENSIFYING
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 850MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70KTS. 

THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. CURRENT CAT POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL OF MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PER GOING HIGH WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN NO CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  46  58  29  44 / 100 100  20  10  10 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  44  54  26  39 / 100 100  30  10  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  44  55  24  39 / 100 100  30  10  10 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  41  54  24  35 / 100 100  50  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE 
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW 
     BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST 
     COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY 
     MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST 
     MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM 
     EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLEDSOE...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...MARION...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...
     SEQUATCHIE.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WISE.

&&

$$

DH