FXUS64 KOHX 291451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MID TN...BASED
AROUND 9 KFT. COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE RADAR
ACTIVITY WAS YIELDING ONLY SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THE OHX 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS. WE EXPECT
MAINLY SPRINKLES TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW SPOTS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE FORECAST WILL
BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WERE
NOTED OVER THE DELTA REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST...GIVING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN (30-40 PERCENT).

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. 

A MORNING UPDATE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/ 

AVIATION...LOOK FOR MID CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY DOWNWARD AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP,
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING RAIN AT BNA UNTIL AFTER 00Z, AND CSV
AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW 3,000 FT OVERNIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF HAS PUSHED A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE MIDSTATE
AS IT PASSED TO THE EAST. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...FROM A CHANCE IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR CERTAINTY TONIGHT EVERYWHERE. ONE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS. WE ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK SET THE DRIEST NOVEMBER
ON RECORD. THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WAS NOVEMBER 1949 WITH
0.54 INCH OF RAIN. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS PREDICTING 0.67 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THIS RECORD IS IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN.

RAINFALL TAPERS OFF ON MON WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY TUE AM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE TRUCKING EWD THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO TX. THIS WILL FORM A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
ON MON WHICH PROCEED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON TUE
NGT AND WED. THIS PUSHES RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY WED AND
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED AND THEN TAPERS
OFF WED NGT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDSTATE. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE WED NGT AND EARLY THU AM.

SFC RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO CLIMO NORMS BAY SAT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SGFNT WX FOR FRI OR SAT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON SUN(12/6).

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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