FXUS61 KGYX 290157
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
857 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS EXPECTED...WINDS DROPPED OFF STEADILY FOLLOWING SUNSET. LATEST
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED THAT DOWN SLOPE HAD LEFT ALL BUT MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE WAS AN UPSTREAM
BAND OF MID CLOUD THAT WILL DROP EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THAT
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND LEAD TO A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...A
DRY AND COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWEST MAINE. I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.
PREV DISC...
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 7 PM...GIVEN WE'RE STILL
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SCT DAMAGE...HOWEVER...NOTICING A DROP IN
WINDS GUSTS ACROSS VT INTO WRN NH...SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE FEW HOURS. SKIES ALSO CLEARING FROM W-E...WITH
THE EXCEPT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MTNS. OTHER THAN A FEW SPKLS
AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY...ALL THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS WELL. THINGS
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...BUT
WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVING THOUGH AROUND 06Z...COULD PRODUCE SOME
UPSLOPE SNSH LATE THIS EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER 20-25 KTS INTO THE EVE...BUT WIND SHOULD
REALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS LINGERING THRU MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER THE REST
OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUNNY...AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE S...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPEN WAVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT COMING IN FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DOWNPLAYED THIS
PRECIP SOMEWHAT IN FAVOR THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL DEVELOPED IN THE MODELS EARLY
ON SO OUR THINKING IS TO PUT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALL HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS FOR SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN NEARER THE COAST.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT YIELDING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 3 INCHES...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN
THE HIGHER NORTHWEST-FACING TERRAIN.
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A PRETTY
DEEP UPPER COLD POOL...A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF COAST STATES AND ACCELERATE/DEEPEN UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AT BEST...TYPIFIED BY THE
LATEST ECMWF WHICH JUMPED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM INTERIOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF OF MAINE. FOR NOW WE HAVE GONE
WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/TYPE ALL SUBJECT TO THE
STORM'S TRACK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
CARVE OUT A COLD DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENT RUNS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL BETTER SHAPE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY/...NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT A FEW
TERMINAL LOCATIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...WESTERN TERMINALS WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS DEVELOPING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN RA/SN/BR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT WITH THE MID EVENING
UPDATE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FALL BLO SCA LVLS DURING SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM...WINDS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. QUIESCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
