FXUS61 KBGM 061755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE THRUWAY LATE
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WSW SLOWLY
LIFTING THE BAND FURTHER NORTH INTO ONLY NRN ONEIDA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MOSTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS AND INCREASE SUNSHINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OH VLY WILL DRIFT E TDA INTO THE MID ATLC
STATES. NW FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY BACK TDA AND
TNGT TO THE WSW. CONCERNING LES POTNL...LAKE SNOW PARAMETER NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRSV...MAXING OUT ACRS NRN ZONES ARND 00Z. MDL PROFILES
ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRSV...WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH DISPLACED
FROM BEST OMEGA. IN ADDN INSTABILTY NOT VERY IMPRSV WILL
CONTINUNE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS NRN ZONES TDA WITH BAND OF MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO NRN ONEIDA THIS AFTN. POTNL FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM THERE THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THIS EVNG. OTRW
PC SKIES MOST OTHER AREAS...,MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY THIS
MRNG...ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND STEBEN COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME -SHSN MAY BE PSBL LATE MONDAY INTO MON NGT ACRS N CNTRL NY DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF A WEAK S/WV AND ASSCD WAA-INDUCED PCPN...AND
THEN SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT -SHSN IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE
MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. ANY ACCUMS SHUD BE ON THE LGT SIDE. MORE
SIG PCPN IN THE FORM OF LGT TO MDT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN
LATER TUES NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE OH VLY. POTNL FOR ACCUMS
OF 1-3 INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK ACRS NE PA AND THE FAR SRN TIER OF
NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S...STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN RUNS...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN PARENT LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST...THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MICHIGAN...AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...TO
VARYING DEGREES...THERE ARE HINTS OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD POINT TOWARDS SNOW AT THE
ONSET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A PROGGED STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SITUATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THESE KINDS OF EVENTS...WOULD IMPLY A
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ULTIMATELY RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM...A MUCH COLDER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WILL SET IN FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WE'LL GO WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...AS THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE GETS CRANKED UP THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KRME, LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WILL
PRODUCE MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TERMINALS WITH HAVE SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. REST OF PERIOD WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER
LAKES BUT BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS. MAINLY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT DEVELOPING INTO A MID DECK BY
MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN S/SE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY KRME/KSYR.
TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR LATE IN SNOW.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
WED NGT THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY KRME/KSYR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
