FXUS64 KTSA 240542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE 
EAST BEFORE CURVING NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDE SPREAD IFR 
CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF LVFR AND SPOTTY VLIFR 
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DURING THROUGH 16Z. 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. WINDS 
WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER 15Z. 
   

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS BETTER
PARAMETERS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED...THERE STILL REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR AN ATOKA TO MIAMI LINE AT 930 PM. THE FRONT IS MOVING
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FASTER TIMING OF FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT. 

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW. 00Z
NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM...AND TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO ARKANSAS BEFORE TURNING
NORTH. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST THEN WE CURRENTLY HAVE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR THE POTENTIALLY MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOWFALL TOTALS/LOCATION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR 
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...15