FXUS63 KFGF 071022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
422 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING 
AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS 
FROM ALBERTA THROUGH S SASK AND SW MB INTO E ND AND CENTRAL MN. WHEN 
COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TUE...AND THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE TRACK OF THE PLAINS 
STORM SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. SO...ENDED UP USING A MODEL 
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...LEANING TOWARD THE ADJMET FOR TEMPS 
AND A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM FOR POPS.    

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE N PLAINS TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...WITH SOME WEAK 850 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700 MB LIFT 
LINGERING AROUND WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SOME FLURRIES TODAY...WITH 
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE N PLAINS FOR TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN 
ONLY A BRUSH OF SNOW FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO LK MI BY 12Z WED. PARTS OF SE 
ND...WC AND NW MN ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE INCH OF 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE STORM PASSES ON WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL 
NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING IN REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN HOLDING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE NW-N AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG