FXUS63 KICT 040530
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRETCH FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKING SHORTWAVE
NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NW CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL PUSH
THE SURFACE HIGH SOUTH ALLOWING SOME LEE TROUGHING TO COMMENCE. IN
RESPONSE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRI
EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO SW TX. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTH BY FRI EVENING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-SAT:
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES.
LIMITED MIXING ON FRI AND SAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES COMING IN BELOW EVEN COOLEST MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR HIGH...AND BASED TEMPERATURES SO FAR
TODAY...APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING.
SUN-TUE:
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A VERY UNLIKELY EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN RIDGE AXIS. THE
1200 UTC CANADIAN LOOKS MORE LIKE WHAT WE WERE THINKING...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO DIG SHORTWAVE DEEP ENOUGH BEFORE
TURNING THE CORNER. IT IS ALSO TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACK GIVEN ENTRENCHED COLD AIR. SUSPECT LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL
INTO OK...SO BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH LOW
TRACKS...COULD END UP WITH A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES FROM
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...TO SIGNIFICANT ICE IN
THE SOUTH AND SNOW IN THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SEEMS PRETTY
REMOTE GIVEN CURRENT THINKING. FULLY EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES ON PATTERN/TIMING/TRACK FROM BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DETAILS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. WILL STAY WITH
CURRENT TREND OF KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING.
WED-THU:
NOMINAL CHANCE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO WED MORNING IN
SOUTHEAST KS...BUT GIVEN MAIN EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TUE/TUE
EVENING...NOT WORTH TOKEN MENTION ON WED MORNING AT THIS TIME
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES ON THU WHEN RETURN FLOW SHOULD COMMENCE IN THE FAR
WEST. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE TOO WARM IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY LOW THU MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON THU
AS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS MAY MIX OUT...BUT SUSPECT EASTERN HALF
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE IMPRESSIVE INVERSION. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
EXCEPT FOR NW WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 22KTS THIS AFTERNOON
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER ALL 5 TERMINALS DURING
THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE. THE NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ~SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 15 37 19 41 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 13 37 17 40 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 14 35 19 40 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 14 35 19 40 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 14 37 19 41 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 10 36 13 39 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 10 36 13 38 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 13 37 18 42 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 13 36 18 40 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 18 37 21 42 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 14 35 18 41 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 15 35 18 41 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 15 36 18 42 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
