FXUS65 KGJT 261020
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR CWA TODAY RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES FRIDAY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MID-
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONCURRENTLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
FORMING ALONG THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RIDGING CONTINUES AT BEGINNING OF LONG-TERM UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EUROPEAN AND GFS
STILL KEEP SPLIT FLOW IN THE PICTURE AS STRONG JET DIGS DOWN OVER
CALIF CREATING CLOSED LOW. THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCD LOW PROGGED TO
DROP FURTHER SOUTH PLACING PRECIP MORE OVER AZ/NM THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. ONE IMPORTANT POINT...AFOREMENTIONED JET PLACEMENT HAS FLIP
FLOPPED ON LAST FEW RUNS PRECLUDING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST AS SCHC TO CHC PRECIP OVER ERN/SRN AREAS SAT MORNING THRU
SUN NIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE GOOD
CALL. CLOSED LOW THEN BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWRD TOWARDS TX.
AS CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES MOVING OVER TEXAS MONDAY...NEXT TROUGH WILL
DROP DOWN FROM PAC NW AND START AFFECTING WX TUE AFTN. 06Z GFS RUN
DOES SCALE BACK PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AS CLOSED LOW RIDES ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER DRAPING COLD FRONT OVER NRN PLAIN STATES. KEPT SOME
CHC FOR PRECIP WITH FROPA TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME SCALING BACK WITH NEXT MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MC
LONG TERM......TGR
AVIATION.......TGR
