FXUS64 KMAF 260600
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DRY AIR AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A 
MINIMUM. LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS AN UPPER 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT INTO THE MS VALLEY...W/SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING 
FOR A MILD DAY W/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD 
INTO THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS THRU 
SATURDAY...AND A FAIR THANKSGIVING.  THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY 
MORNING...MODELS BRING A WEAK TROUGH THRU THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF 
THE FA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN 
WILL STILL BE SCANT BY THAT TIME.  

SUNDAY...THINGS TRANSITION MUCH COLDER W/THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT 
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING THRU NRN MEXICO.  
THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF 
THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH TRACKS STILL DIFFER...W/THE GFS THE 
DEEPEST...THE ECMWF SHALLOWEST...AND DGEX A COMPROMISE.  ACCORDING 
TO LAMBERT/S SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF HEAVY SNOW IN WEST TEXAS...THE 
GFS/DGEX SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD TYPE A/B SYNOPTIC STORMS...WHICH 
PORTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE 
THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF DOESN/T FIT NEATLY INTO ANY CATEGORY.  
REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUFKIT...AND H85-H7 THICKNESSES SUGGEST 
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG BEND SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  W/THIS EVENT 4 DAYS OUT...WE/LL NOT SPLIT HAIRS ON PRECIP 
TYPE JUST YET...AND MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...W/THE TROUGH MOVING 
THRU MONDAY NIGHT.  FOR TEMPS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND TEMP/ 
THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST UNDERCUTTING MOS INTO THE EXTENDED.  

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$