FXUS63 KSGF 251934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ATTENTION FINALLY TURNS TO THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE CWA SHOULD SEE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

A COOL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THE SKY
WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY BOTTOM OUT...HOWEVER A CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED AS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE EXPECTED. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THANKSGIVING AS THE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING...THOUGH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TO
LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES...SO HAVE LEFT LOWS IN THE 30S HERE. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CWA. IF SOUTHERLY WINDS
KICK IN A LITTLE EARLIER OUT EAST LOWS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE 30
DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK
WRINKLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...HOWEVER IT MAY
RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. NEVERTHELESS A WARM DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGHS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN
TO RUN CONTINUES WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT BITTEN OFF ON ANY ONE MODEL RUN YET. TWO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE PLAYERS WITH PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON
HOW THESE FEATURES WILL EVOLVE. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE OTHER ONE WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES COULD PHASE TOGETHER AND
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION...OR THE SOUTHERN TROUGH COULD
CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE LEFT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LARGE SCALE SET
UP.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH JLN/SGF/BBG
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
RESULTING IN COLD...BUT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$