FXUS61 KRLX 232152
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT...SHIFTS EAST AS TEMPERATURES TURN WARMER
THURSDAY. RAINY AND WINDY OCCLUDED FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TURNING COLDER AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NW WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW SYSTEM DOWN A TAD AS LOW WINDS UP. WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AS WELL. OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
TOMORROW AND INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GEM/GMOS/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA 
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH 
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL 
BE SLOW TO GET DISLODGED BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUED 
SHOWING A RELATIVE DRY SLOT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT...BEFORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION COME BACK 
IN FORCE DURING SATURDAY.  

TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING...TRAPPED ACROSS THE EAST FACING 
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE LIQUID PCPN TO FREEZE 
THRU NGT INTO FRI. CODED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF ICE ACROSS MOST OF 
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0,.25 
INCHES OF ICE. OTHER COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COULD SEE HIGHER ICE 
ACCUMULATIONS BUT CONFINED TO THEIR EASTERN SLOPES. A WINTER STORM 
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR POCA AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY REBOUND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE STRATIFORM RAIN...AS THE WARM 
FRONT LIFTS OUT. AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MOST 
AREAS...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING 
WITH THE MELTING SNOW PACK. HOWEVER...IF MORE RAINFALL OCCURS...THEN 
THIS WOULD BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM. FOR NOW...NO MENTION OF 
FLOODING ISSUES. 

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 60 TO 70 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT H850. SAME 
STRONG WINDS ARE EVIDENT ON 290K ISENTROPIC SFC DOWNGLIDING TO THE 
GROUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU NIGHT. THEREFORE...ISSUE A HIGH WIND 
WATCH WHERE THE ISENTROPIC WINDS ARE THE HIGHEST FROM FAYETTE SOUTH 
TO DICKENSON COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE 
WESTERN SLOPES AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NORTH TO 
RANDOLPH THU NGT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

ADJUSTED POPS/WX TIMING ACCORDING TO SREF/NAM DETAILS. MINOR CHANGES 
NEEDED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. 
WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG 
TERM AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS 
OHIO...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY MID WEEK. LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE 
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ESPECIALLY IN 
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE 
NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A BRIEF 
BREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
ATTEMPTS TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT EKN AND CRW UNDER MOSTLY SCT
HIGH TO MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 05Z-12Z. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
SYSTEM IMPACTS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAIN AND 
POSSIBLE IFR. FREEZING RAIN ALSO A THREAT IN THE WV MOUNTAIN 
VALLEYS...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAWIDE 
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS