FXUS64 KMEG 040535
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
UPDATE...
LOWERED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
AT 9 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NEAR UNION CITY AND PARIS TN
TO THE MID 30S NEAR TUPELO AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE HIGH
WAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
REST OF TONIGHT...COLD AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10000 FT AGL OVER CENTRAL AR HAS BEEN
ERODING IT MOVES EAST. CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH MS LATE TONIGHT. LOW STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3500 FT AGL NEAR
THE TN RIVER AND MS/AL SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL...WENT PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 25 OVER
FAR NE AR...MO BOOTHEEL...AND NW TN TO AROUND 30 AT MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AS WELL AS NEAR ABERDEEN MS. FROSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE OCCURRING...BUT CHOSE TO
LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AS CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT
AND IF FOG DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN 3 MILES.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY AND RATHER CHILLY. SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TEXAS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND CHILLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK
NORTHEAST. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THAT TIME...EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT OCCURS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST SO SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND CHILLY. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION SO
EXPECT THE COLD NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH SOME AREAS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DROPPING BELOW 20 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY...SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD START TO SLOWLY BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED
WITH SNOW OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SMALL THREAT OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE MORE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL MEAN DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCU DECK SHOULD REMAIN SCT TO BKN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY INCREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 00Z.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 45 31 43 27 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 43 26 41 22 / 0 0 10 10
JBR 43 27 41 23 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 47 30 45 28 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
