FXUS61 KGYX 091951
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY SNOW HAS CURRENTLY CLEARED MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL BE
LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN MAINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OCCLUDED
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE WHERE WSW'S HAVE BEEN DROPPED. ONLY
LOOKING FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL.
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPING READINGS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE 20S
TO NEAR 30 AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR THIS COLD AIR OUT
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH SECONDARY LOW SPINNING UP OFFSHORE.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TIMING FOR WSW'S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING FOR OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...SLEET AND SNOW TO CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
FOOTHILL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS EVENING WITH
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
FARTHER NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE EXPECT
SNOW TO TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUING HIGH WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE PORTLAND AREA AND HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE MID COAST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BEHIND THE
OCCLUSION LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH A TIGHT
WESTERLY GRADIENT IN IT'S WAKE. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF LOW PRES EXITING THRU THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NGT AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON STRONG AND GUSTY W OR
W NW WINDS. THIS CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY WITH STEADILY COLDER AIR
MOVING IN. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND CD AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH A CHC OF -SHSN ACROSS THE N AND MT ZONES
WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEE LESS CLOUDINESS THOUGH A FLURRY OR TWO MAY
MOVE THRU. A WEAK JET SEGMENT AND VORTICITY LOBE MOVE THRU FRIDAY
NGT ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC OF
-SHSN WHICH MAY EXTEND FURTHER TO THE COAST.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY NGT INTO SUNDAY...THEN WARMER AIR
MOVES IN AS A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY. A SFC LOW FORMS ON THE SRN END OF THIS TROF BUT CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE IT TOO FAR S AND E TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FCST AREA. STILL THE TROF WITH SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT MAY TRIGGER
SOME LGT RN OR SN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY THOUGH IT STRUGGLES TO CLEAR OUT OUR
WX. LOW PRES MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY NGT AND WED WITH A CHC OF PRCP...
WHICH COULD BE RN OR SN.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY THEN USED GMOS FOR REST OF LONG TERM
FCST WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AND VFR DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...COLD BLUSTERY W OR NW
FLOW THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRES AND VSBY SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRES ON MONDAY BRINGS
CHC OF -SHRASN WITH PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS AND A LESSER CHC OF IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST WATERS AND
CASCO BAY WITH STORM WARNINGS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN GRADED TO GALES LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...STRONG COLD W OR W NW
FLOW THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY REQUIRE GALE
WARNINGS...WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS PSBL. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS SLOWLY EASE
UP...FINALLY DROPPING BLO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NGT. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM SEAS STAY BLO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NGT. TROF OF LOW PRES FOR MONDAY...WINDS COME UP SOME
...BUT LIKELY STAY BLO SCA LEVELS. SEAS MAY JUST REACH SCA LEVELS
OVER THE OUTER MOST WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES CURRENTLY RUNNING 2.4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL AND WITH HIGH TIDE EXPECTED TO BE 9.5 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-019>022-026>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ022-
026>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 4 TO 7 PM FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>004-006.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 4 TO 7 PM FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ153-154.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152.
&&
$$
