FXAK69 PAFG 041534
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
634 AM AKST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT NAM/GFS RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND HAVE SATISFACTORY
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE HANDLING OF THE TWO STRONG
SURFACE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS. THE SECOND
LOW...NOW NEAR 42N/160W... WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS IT BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM.

WINTER STORM WATCHES BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR AKZ211/213/214
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. GALES DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF PKZ210/
AKZ213/AKZ214/WESTERN PKZ200 THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.
GALE GUSTS LIKELY IN PARTS OF AKZ212/AKZ215. GALES OR GALE GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN PKZ215/PKZ220/AKZ207/AKZ209 SAT.

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AKZ214 AS MILDER
AIR STREAMS NORTH. SEWARD PENINSULA TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY OCCUR
BUT HOW MUCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

RF DEC 09