FXUS62 KJAX 060836
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS MAINTAINED LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WITH CIRRUS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING SO FAR. STILL THINK
A LIGHT BRIEF FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES SO WILL
CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE WITH
SGJ ALREADY REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
COASTAL SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO MOIST NE FLOW PRODUCING
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREA WILL BE IN WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MEAN WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY FROM KCRG TERMINAL SOUTHWARD...
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 300 FEET AGL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND AND NORTHWARD
TODAY. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KCRG AND KJAX
TERMINALS BY AROUND 10Z AND KSSI TERMINAL BY 15Z. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AT KGNV TERMINAL FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY REPORTS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED BELOW
SCA CRITERIA...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS HAS
BEEN CANCELED. WILL HOIST SCEC HEADLINES FOR OUR GEORGIA OFFSHORE
LEGS AND POSSIBLY OUR GEORGIA NEARSHORE LEGS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY...TRAILED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCEC/SCA
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 42 68 49 / 0 10 10 10
SSI 57 49 67 54 / 0 10 0 10
JAX 59 45 71 54 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 62 55 71 59 / 0 10 20 10
GNV 61 47 73 54 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 63 51 74 56 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COLUMBIA-
GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-WARE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ZAPPE
