FXUS62 KCAE 251301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN SALUDA COUNTY. 
SO WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO MENTION THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NO MORE CHANGES. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHEAR TO NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS
APPARENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CAE CWA FROM BURKE COUNTY, GEORGIA TO
ORANGEBURG COUNTY AND CLARENDON COUNTY IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS. A
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SOUTHERN PART UNTIL NOON
THIS CHRISTMAS DAY.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT 50-70 KT AT 3-5 KFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER A SURFACE WEDGE THIS MORNING. COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE 50S SOUTH WILL INCREASE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. PRETTY STRONG SURFACE
BASED WEDGE SHOULD KEEP REAL STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO
SURFACE. MORNING NAM LIS MAINLY +10/+15. LIS DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME STRONG WINDS 3-5 KFT SHOULD HAVE
DECREASED TO 35-45 KT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD HAVE
DECREASED AS WELL. SO LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
MINIMAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM SHOULD ZIP COLD FRONT TO THE WEST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN
EXPECTED TO MAKE QUICK EXIT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM
THE GULF REGION AND INCREASE CLOUDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BUT WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKES THE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AS
TROUGH DEEPENS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER
FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS OUT TO NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT AIRMASS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BY
EARLY NEW YEARS EVE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH A
LITTLE SNOW NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. ANYWAY...COLD DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH 
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR. MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND SHEAR.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NE/ENE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ARND 20
KTS. VWP SHOWS WINDS AT 2K FT 40 TO 50 KTS. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
LLJ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA AS AIRMASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK UNSTABLE. BY
THIS EVENING MODELS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA
AND CLEARING WILL BEGIN. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW RAPID DROP OFF
OF MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...