FXUS64 KMEG 300548
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1148 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
UPDATE...05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ALREADY
LOCATED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. UPDATED
GRIDS EARLIER TO TAPER POPS OFF WEST OF THE RIVER OVERNIGHT AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THINK THEY ARE HOLDING ON TO RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM A BIT LONGER THAN LATEST REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS FURTHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 817 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
UPDATE...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A COLD FRONT
FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI THEN BACK THROUGH LITTLE ROCK AND
TEXARKANA. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED /ELEVATED/ THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS /SOUTH OF I-40/ AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITIES DUE TO EARLIER FOG/DRIZZLE ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO EXPAND
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND TO ADJUST WEATHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
INCLEMENT WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS H5 CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS...THEN LIFTS OUT AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PFJ DIGS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT COLD FRONT ELONGATED FROM SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL. ALL MODELS HINTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST. SO
KEPT POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 18Z...THEN JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD AFTER 18Z. MONDAY EVENING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FELT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING AS
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE REST OF TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEXAS LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST GULF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST. GFS TAKES
THE TRACK THE FURTHEST EAST ACROSS ALABAMA...THEN ALONG THE
BACKBONE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THEN SHUNTS IT QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LINE IT UP WITH
THE GFS IN WEST VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION BASICALLY SPLITS
THE TWO TRACKS. CHOSE MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON PAST TRENDS.
THIS WILL MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MIDSOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE ITEM IN WHICH THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT IS THE ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE STORM.
H850 TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP FROM ZERO TO -8 FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ECMWF LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THEREFORE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL
NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS TO ANY CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
WINTRY WEATHER MIX THURSDAY MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND COLD...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
AT KMEM...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH 16-20Z...
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN. BRIEF IFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
-RA WILL END AROUND 08Z. NORTH WINDS 9-14 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.
GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD IN TAF.
AT KJBR...KMKL...AND KTUP...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AS EARLY AS 13Z KJBR TO AROUND 20Z AT
KMKL AND KTUP. IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AT KTUP
THROUGH ABOUT 0830Z UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. -RA WILL END AT KMKL 08-10Z AND KTUP 12-14Z.
NORTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY...MAINLY IN THE 09-18Z RANGE...THEN
WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 46 53 38 61 / 100 10 0 10
MKL 43 51 32 59 / 100 10 0 10
JBR 42 52 32 57 / 100 0 0 10
TUP 48 53 35 59 / 100 50 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
