FXUS63 KICT 232059
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBLE WINTER STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT
MESSY AND TOUGH FORECAST. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY KEEPING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NIGHT. SOME MAY GET
FRISKY...BUT SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION ALREADY
BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN CENTRAL KS...WITH MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA WITH
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST. WITH WINTRY MIX EARLY
IN CENTRAL KS...THEN INCREASING WINDS LIKELY REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD DAYBREAK BLOWING WHAT SNOW DOES OCCUR...WILL HOIST
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS AND EXTEND INTO
LATER PERIODS. NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT ANY OF THE AREA WILL REACH
WARNING CRITERIA FOR ANY SINGLE WEATHER ELEMENT/CRITERIA.
MODELWISE...COMBO OF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/LOCAL WRF USED FOR GRIDS.
-HOWERTON
THU-SAT
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO WITH A SECOND PV ANOMALY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND A THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE SECOND PV ANOMALY WILL BE THE KEY FEATURE FOR
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
MERGE WITH THE FIRST WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STRONG PV
ANOMALY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD
ACROSS MISSOURI. MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR OUTING WITH TRENDS...MOVING
IT NORTH THEN BACK SOUTH LATE IN THE GAME. A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SEEMS LIKELY NOW WHICH WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. SNOW
COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION
LINE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD MISS OUT
ON THE GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER LOTS OF COORDINATION
EFFORTS WE WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL COME UP SHORT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BUT ANY SNOW WITH THE WIND COULD STILL CREATE PROBLEMS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR COLD WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED: SUN-WED
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
THURSDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ACROSS KANSAS SLOWLY MODIFYING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEST COAST REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO KANSAS.
JAKUB
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VLIFR TO LIFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TOWARD 00Z AND INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...AND BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
MIXING WITH THE SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO VLIFR. WIND SPEEDS
COULD APPROACH 25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 35 TO 40 KTS.
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT KRSL AND KSLN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 06Z. AT KICT AND KHUT RA AND DZ WILL PLAGUE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO
A WINTRY MIX AND FINALLY TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AROUND 11-12Z.
KCNU SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH RAIN THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 29 29 13 23 / 90 90 60 30
HUTCHINSON 25 25 12 21 / 70 70 50 30
NEWTON 28 28 13 22 / 90 90 60 30
ELDORADO 31 32 13 23 / 90 90 70 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 32 32 14 25 / 90 90 60 20
RUSSELL 22 22 9 19 / 20 60 40 40
GREAT BEND 22 23 10 20 / 20 50 40 30
SALINA 25 25 11 19 / 50 80 70 40
MCPHERSON 25 26 12 20 / 70 80 60 30
COFFEYVILLE 40 41 17 25 / 100 100 90 20
CHANUTE 37 38 17 24 / 100 100 90 30
IOLA 36 37 16 23 / 100 100 90 30
PARSONS-KPPF 39 40 17 24 / 100 100 90 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR KSZ033-048>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-047.
&&
$$
