FXUS63 KSGF 061754
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM MID
WEEK. 

TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE WARM AS WAA WILL BE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE WAA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR. WHILE THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...FEELING THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR. WITH THAT SAID...MODELS DO HAVE A PROBLEM HANDLING LOW
LEVEL COLD AIRMASSES AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOCUSES ON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE OZARKS ALMOST RIDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE DIGGING THE
SYSTEM ENOUGH GIVEN THE EVENTUAL KICKER ENERGY IS STILL ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR THE SYSTEM WILL DIG IS JUST
NOW BEGINNING TO BE SAMPLED OVER ALASKA. BECAUSE OF THIS REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MID WEEK. STILL THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE OZARKS ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
EARLY TUESDAY AS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE COLD AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM
AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE NORTHWEST.

AGAIN...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM
AND WHERE ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...HAVE BEEN TRACKING A
FAIRLY LARGE STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THAT COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED 2K FOOT CEILINGS TO THE KSGF AND KJLN
TAFS. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CEILINGS AT KSGF AND KBBG WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KBBG AND KSGF BY EARLY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS VERY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. IF
PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THEN I DO BELIEVE CEILINGS WILL BE
HIGHER...PROBABLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR RETURNS
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED LLWS IN
ALL THREE TAFS.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$