FXUS61 KOKX 092144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH...BRISK WESTERLY GRADIENT 
SETS UP...AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FIRING ON LEFT EXIT REGION OF VERY STRONG JET STREAK
TO THE N AND W OF NYC. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD THUNDER.

PREVIOUS... UPPER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW PRODUCING
CONVECTION TO THE WEST...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THIS ACTIVITY
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING (BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TSTMS)...THEN
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. DESPITE
CAA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS...WITH
CSTL AREAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND CAA WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY 
SATURDAY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY...AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE 
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.

BRISK WEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER. DRY WEATHER THOUGH 
PREVAILS...WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND 
WEST.

AS FOR MAX/MINS...WILL CHOP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF MOS...ESPECIALLY 
WHERE ANY SNOWPACK EXISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 1033 HI WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA 12Z SUN. THIS IS THE MOST 
CONFIDENT ASPECT OF THE FCST. 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER THEREAFTER. AT H5 
SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WAA DURING THE DAY SUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO 
PRESENT A WET SOLN WITH LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT THE TIMING. ECMWF IS 
DRY. WITH DRASTIC WARMING AT H85 AND SLY BL WINDS DEVELOPING...PCPN 
WOULD BE SN TO SLEET TO RA COASTS WITH SNOW TO SLEET INTERIOR. POPS 
ARE IN THE LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTN CAN 
BE EXPECTED.

DEEP H5 LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE NGT. SRN 
STREAM WILL ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. 
HOW THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO EVOLVES IS IN QUESTION. PREV RUNS HAVE 
HINTED AT A COASTAL...WHILE THE LATEST FEW CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TO A 
MORE BENIGN SOLN. OFFICIAL FCST CARRIES SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS TUE 
THRU EARLY WED WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IN THE INTERIOR AND MIX/RA 
METRO AND COASTS. THE TIMING/PTYPE/INTENSITY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
IN THE MON-WED PERIOD AS CLEAR TRENDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEARING ALG AND EAST OF A KABE-KJFK-KISP LINE. CLOUD DECK SLOWLY 
LIFTING NORTHWARD. GENERAL TREND IS IMPROVING CONDS...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF KSWF WHICH WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CIGS LONGEST.

WHILE CONF IN HIGH WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS EVENING IS HIGH...EXACT 
TIMING OF ONSET IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY OCCUR A BIT SOONER THAN 
FORECAST. ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHICH IF 
HOLDS TOGETHER MAY IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 21-22Z. PRIMARY THREAT 
WOULD BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. 

STRONG WINDS TONIGHT/THU EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 DEG.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS. 

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     09/18Z VRB03KT
     09/19Z VRB03KT
     09/20Z 26005KT    
     09/21Z 26007KT    
     09/22Z 26008KT    
     09/23Z 27009KT    
     10/00Z 27011KT    
     10/01Z 27014KT    
     10/02Z 27017G33KT 
     10/03Z 27021G36KT 
     10/04Z 27021G37KT 
     10/05Z 26021G34KT 

KJFK...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS.   

KLGA...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS.  

KTEB...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS.  

KHPN...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS. BRIEF PERIODS IFR DUE TO FOG PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. 

KSWF...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SFC WINDS/CIGS. 
ALSO MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER SNOW 
COVER.

KISP...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS. 

KBDR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS.  

KGON...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR 
CIGS AND WINDS. BRIEF PERIODS IFR DUE TO FOG PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. 

OUTLOOK 18Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU-FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS. 
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. 
SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LULL IN THE WINDS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS 
AND TRACKS TOWARDS SE CANADA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RE- TIGHTENS WITH 
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH 
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
OVER ALL WATER TONIGHT. 

THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF 
CAA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HAVE EXTENDED GALE 
WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY 
BE MARGINAL ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE 
HOISTED A GALE WATCH DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SECOND PERIOD EVENT. 
GALES LIKELY ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

12 TO 18 FT SEAS ONLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WITH STRONG 
OFFSHORE FLOW 8 TO 12 FT SEAS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST 
EAST. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE RACE.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE 
CENTER OF THE BUILDING HIGH CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NEXT 
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS MAY BE SUN/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL 
LOW.

WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
TIDAL DEPARTURES RUNNING 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOW 
WATER PROBLEMS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL 
BE ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THURS MORNING LOW TIDES.

HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE CSTL WATERS SUN WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN 
SUBSIDING BY SUNRISE. A COMPLEX SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS IN THE SUN 
NGT THRU WED PERIOD. A WRMFNT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THE 
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CDFNT FOLLOWING BY WED. BETWEEN 
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE REGION IS 
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW ANY RIVERS/STREAMS TO 
RECEDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH OFFSHORE 
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
WESTERN SOUND...TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD FALL BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS 
AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     NYZ071>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     NJZ005-006-011.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/MANNING
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...