FXUS63 KFGF 061637
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1037 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL KEEP PERSISTANCE GOING FCST WISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
WEAK SHORT WAVES AND AREAS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW VERY DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR. WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW 500 MB
SHEAR AXIS MOVING INTO NE SD AND CNTRL MN THIS MORNING WITH SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD AROUND NORTHEAST ONTARIO UPPER
LOW INTO ERN ND/NW MN. SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE THE SFC
NOTICED BY 12-15F DEW PTS OVER THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN THIS
MORNING UP TO THE WINNIPEG AREA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC TO
300 MB...WOULD EXPECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY. PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TONIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT THE SAME
AND DID ADD FLURRIES TO THE GRIDDS FOR TONIGHT AS SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAD THEM IN ALREADY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY TODAY
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MN IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WHILE THE WRN
CWA WHICH HAS A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY STRUGGLE TO
REACH AROUND 10F.  

VSBL SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE MVFR DECK MAINLY
OVER WRN FCST AREA FROM ABDEREEN-MOBRIDGE NORTHWARD THRU JMS-DVL
TO ROLLA. SO COULD SEE SOME SUN AT TIMES IN THIS AREA BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY WORKS GOOD.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND 
LATER PERIOD SNOW CHANCES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO 
REAL MODEL PREFERENCE. 

REGION TO REMAIN WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RH WITHIN TROUGH SO OVERALL 
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE. 

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AM HAVE RECOVERED UNDER CLOUD DECK AND 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE AS 
CLOUDS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS TODAY 
WILL LIMIT CLIMB ONCE TEMPERATURES STABALIZE. BASED ON RUC COLDEST 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN FA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDE 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA. COOLER MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS MOST 
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. 
FLURRIES A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND 
WILL ADD MENTION TO FORECAST FOR TODAY.  

COLUMN GRADUALLY COOLS INTO TUESDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR 
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THIS ALL HINGES ON SKY CONDITION AND ANY BREAKS 
IN CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WITH 
UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TREND OF GRADUAL 
COOLING. 

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONSISTENT IN 
PUTTING SE THIRD OF FA ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW BAND TUESDAY. 
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW POTENTIAL SO AT THIS POINT WILL NOT 
INCREASE POPS HIGHER THAN WHAT THEY ARE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES LOOKING AT POTENTIAL COLD DUMP TO FINISH OFF 
WORK WEEK. WITH SUB 500 DAM THICKNESS VALUES COULD GET PRETTY NIPPY 
BUT DOES NOT LOOK LONG LIVED.  
  

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND COULD HANG IN FOR NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SHOULD BE 
FAIRLY ISOLD IN -SW. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/VOELKER