FXUS62 KFFC 231541
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
49
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE WARM DAYS FOR A WHILE AS MODELS
PROGGING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. AS THE H5 LOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND 12Z
FRI PEAKING AROUND 06Z FRI. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY...EVEN
THOUGH NOT THAT GREAT...200 CAPES...WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PULL BACK ON QPF AND FORECASTING A GENERAL
1 TO 1.5 ACROSS THE CWA AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME
2 INCH REPORTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
INDICATES WE WILL NOT MEET THE THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING. WHILE I
EXPECT A FEW RIVER GAGE SITES TO REACH FLOOD...DO NOT EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ONE LAST ESF
MINIMIZING THE FLOODING THREAT. ON CHRISTMAS DAY THERE COULD BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 LOW IS NOT IN ANY HURRY TO LIFT OUT AND MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND IN 5 DAYS. THE CWA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH KEEPING IS IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE MODELS TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A SHORT WAVE/PRECIP INTO THE CWA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A
DRY FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ONSET OF THIS SHORT
WAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM..
17
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY WINDS...MAINLY
UNDER 10KT BUT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY AT ATL...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THICKENING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MOIST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL
BRING LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING IN
BETWEEN 09-12Z.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 37 47 39 51 / 5 0 30 100 40
ATLANTA 57 40 50 40 52 / 5 5 60 100 20
BLAIRSVILLE 49 35 46 38 46 / 10 0 40 100 30
CARTERSVILLE 55 38 50 41 52 / 10 0 60 100 10
COLUMBUS 61 46 57 48 59 / 5 5 70 100 10
GAINESVILLE 52 38 46 38 48 / 10 0 40 100 30
MACON 60 43 56 50 61 / 5 0 50 100 20
ROME 55 40 50 43 51 / 10 5 70 100 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 40 51 42 55 / 5 5 60 100 10
VIDALIA 63 44 63 55 64 / 0 5 40 100 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
