FXUS63 KICT 261735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS ARE SLOWLY SWITCHING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS MOVING OVER.
BILLINGS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL
MOVE ACROSS ERN KS THIS PM...INTO MO TONIGHT. LIGHT NWRLY
WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SWRLY TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR SUN-SUN
NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OFF OF THE
NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN
TO SOUTH TX WITH A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THESE PERIODS AS SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE FOR GOOD RADIATION TONIGHT
ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
FRI-SAT:
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND BY SAT AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME DOWNSLOPE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE FORECASTING MIXING ONLY UP TO AROUND
900MB BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. BY SAT
AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WEST TX INTO NORTHEAST KS. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA...THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SAT.
SUN-WED:
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
ON SUN AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS.
CONSIDERING WE DON'T GET INTO ANY RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH THE
POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH ANY
TYPE OF PROLONGED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT. IN ADDITION THE AIR TO
MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN LIMITING A DECENT
COLD AIR SURGE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING
THE CLOSED LOW BACK OVER BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS FOR MON AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUE. CONSIDERING THE GOOD DOWNSLOPE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FORECASTING FOR TUE...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS EVEN MORE.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 30 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 30 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 52 30 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 30 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 55 28 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 56 29 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 53 30 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 51 30 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 49 30 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 49 30 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 50 30 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
