FXUS62 KMHX 241831
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
131 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY FOR A WET CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP US
REACH OUR LOW TEMPERATURE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPECT
OVERRUNING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WARM FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FAST ON ITS HEELS WITH THE WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS ENSEMBLE HINTING AT A WEAK DRY SURGE COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER CWA
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 9AM THU...STEAM FOG HAS ENDED AND EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE
DAY WITH HIGH PRES TO OUR NORTH. SOME SCU PSBL THIS AFTN BUT VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EVENING. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW
LVL MSTR EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
FURTHER DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. PREDOMINANT MVFR APPEARS
LIKELY WITH OCCN IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN BY FRI AFTN AND CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND GUSTY SE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AN ISSUE ON FRI. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT MORNING AS
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. MAINLY VFR TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT WLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 9AM THU...
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP WINDS IN SRN WATERS A BIT AND START
ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER. WHILE WE DONT HAVE ANY OBS IN THAT
ZONE ANYMORE SINCE 41035 IS OUT AND 36 IS ADRIFT...THE 7AM OB FROM
THE 38 BUOY JUST SE OF WRIGHTSVILLE SUGGESTS WINDS BETWEEN CAPE FEAR
AND LOOKOUT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHERE PRES GRADIENT IS PINCHED
MORE BTWN HIGH PRES N OF AREA AND WEAK COASTAL TROF OFFSHORE.
OVERALL THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6FT ACROSS OUTER PORTION OF WATERS...AND N/NE
WINDS 12-21 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL BE ADDING THE SOUNDS TO
THE ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SOLID SCA ALL
WATERS FRI AFTN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRI NIGHT. MAIN FCST MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH NAM MUCH SLOWER THAN GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE IT
OFF COAST BY 12Z SAT. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS COMPROMISE
SOLUTION AND KEEPS STRONGER SRLY WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH SAT
MORNING. DID DECREASE WINDS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ALL MODELS
SUPPORTING WEAKER PRES GRAD AND LIGHTER WINDS. CAA SURGE EXPECTED
TO KICK IN SUN NIGHT AND CONT MON WITH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS AND
SCA SEAS LIKELY INTO TUE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...JBM/MW
MARINE...JBM/MW
