FXUS61 KBOX 100844
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CIRCULATE BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUPPRESSED JET STREAM RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL COLD THIS PERIOD.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY PROBABLY OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
HOLDING STEADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FALLING QUICKLY LATE IN
THE DAY.
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT 3 AM ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS RT2 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TIL
SUNRISE...THEN DRY AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST WIND GUST
FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND FRI AS CORE OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION...
PROMOTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
DRY WEATHER TODAY ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SNOW SHOWER
SPILLING OVER THE BERKS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GETS
CRANKING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR
NANTUCKET AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELIVERED ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING TO WEST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY BECOMES WESTERLY SO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLDEST AIR OF THIS EARLY WINTER/AUTUMN SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO -16C/-17C! GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE WIND
CHILLS AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
PREFERRED THE COLDER METNAM GUIDANCE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
I95.
SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE GIVEN THIS COLD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME CAN/T RULE OUR A STRAY
SNOW SHOWER SPILLING OVER THE BERKS INTO THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 45 MPH SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRI.
FRIDAY...
MORE OF THE SAME - DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
YIELDING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK WITH INLAND LOCATIONS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 20S! AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER METNAM GIVEN VERY COLD
TEMPS ALOFT SNOW COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN START TO SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
APPEAR TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING POSSIBLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE CONUS AFTER THE WEEKEND...
WHICH LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY TIME FROM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH
THE STRONG W TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO
THE LAKES UPSTREAM...APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LAKE EFFECT
EVENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NY STATE WHICH WILL LIKELY
REACH ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE E SLOPES AND SW NH. FOR
NOW...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN
THIS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS AND BERKS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S ACROSS E MA...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS...WHICH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...WILL YIELD WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. VERY FRIGID CONSIDERING HOW MILD IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL FEEL VERY COLD WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS.
WINDS FINALLY START TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO N CT/RI/SE MA AS A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE S...THOUGH
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS. CONTINUED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE W MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE THING THAT THERE IS SOME SENSE OF AGREEMENT
ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE DISCREPANCY COMES IN THE ORIGINS OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING. THESE DIFFERENCES MAY AFFECT THE
TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OCCURS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SOMETIME IN THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
QUICKLY ERODE/IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM AROUND 040.
TONIGHT...
STRONG WEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY CIGS 040.
FRIDAY...
MORE OF THE SAME WITH STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT. VFR WITH
PATCHY CIGS 040.
OUTLOOK /FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.
MONDAY...VFR. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...
WIDESPREAD WEST GALES DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL COMBINE
WITH BUILDING WESTERLY WIND WAVES TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS
/STEEP AND CHOPPY/.
TONIGHT AND FRI...
WEST GALES CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GUSTS COULD REACH 40-45 KT MAINLY ON
THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 10-14 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO DIMINISH...THOUGH GUSTS
COULD REACH 30 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN UP TO 6
TO 8 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...W WINDS BACK TO SW AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT.
MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT/RLG - NOT UPDATED
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK/EVT
