FXUS61 KBTV 251921
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
221 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES RETURN FOR THANKSGIVING...FOLLOWED BY A STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1116 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT...MAINLY
JUST TO KEEP FCST CURRENT. FOG HAS LIFTED OR BURNED OFF IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AND STLT PICS INDICATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER FORECAST
AREA AND UPSTREAM...SO HAVE CONTD WITH IDEA OF MAINLY CLDY SKIES
FOR THE REST OF TDY. ISOLD SHWRS OVER ST LWR VLY AND WRN
ADRNDKS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHWRS FURTHER WEST
ASSOCD WITH SHRTWV. AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES NEWRD...EXPECT CHANCES
FOR SOME SHWRS TO INCREASE LATER THIS PM/EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING ACRS NRN TIER OF ZONES. MAX TEMPS THIS PM EXPECTED
TO BE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING WILL INCR TO REST OF AREA DURING THE DAY AS WK FRNTL
BOUNDARY MVS ACROSS THE CWA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO DURING THIS EVENING
HRS. MEANWHILE DURING THE DAY CWA WILL SEE SCT/ISO -RW FROM WK
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FRNTL BOUNDARY. SOME ACTIVITY ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER N NY AS EVIDENT ON RADAR LOOP. W/ TEMPS WELL ABV
FREEZING GOING INTO EVENING HRS...EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE ALL -RW
AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS N NY AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER (BASED ON MDL LOW TRACK)...TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
E TOWARDS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 429 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SYSTEM MVS N OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR THANKSGIVING AS SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CLDS ON INCR BY NGTFALL AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CWA...WHICH MDLS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON
SFC/UPPER LOW PLACEMENT FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE GONE W/
LATEST CONSENSUS PLACING CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENG
THURSDAY NGT. UPPER LOW DOES GRAB ONTO FEATURE OFFSHORE AND WILL
PIVOT THAT INWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A HIGH QPF EVENT FOR ENTIRE
CWA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY W/ UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID POTENTIAL. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS EVENT FOR AFTNOON HRS FRIDAY WILL BE TIMING OF
WRAP-AROUND AND SWITCH TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
DRAG COLDER AIR INTO MOIST AIRMASS...AND BEGIN CHANGING RW TO SW.
THIS WILL AFFECT HIR TRRN THRU 00Z SATURDAY W/ ONLY AN INCH OF
LESS ACCUM POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS NOT CD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD.
SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL DROP TO NEAR 10:1 AS SNOWFALL PROGRESSES
TOWARDS EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TRACK...ANY SHIFT OUT
TO SEA OR STAYING MORE INLAND MAJORLY AFFECT PRECIP TYPE/AMT AND
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER
NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE STORM
WILL BE WINDING DOWN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BOTH
BE MOVING FROM THE AREA OF EASTERN MAINE SATURDAY MORNING TOWARDS
NEW BRUNSWICK MAINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE EXPECTING ALL SNOW ON
SATURDAY...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REGION BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HANGING ON THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE STUBBORN MOUNTAIN WRAP AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS TEND TO LINGER THE LONGEST. GENERAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ALSO FEEDING THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY BE A RAIN EVENT...WITH SOME CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MPV WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT FROM MVFR TO
IFR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WE HAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK REGION THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH NY TAF SITES AROUND
20Z...AND VT TAF SITES BY 23Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE 4
HRS....THEN THE POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR IFR BR AND STRATUS TO
FORM...LASTING THROUGH 12Z. DO NOT EXPECT VISBYS TO DROP TERRIBLY
FAR...SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SOME MVFR -SHRA AT KMSS LATE
THURSDAY. FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR IN RA...CHANGING TO SN IN MTNS. SATURDAY...IFR
IN SN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RASN ELSEWHERE...CHANGING TO SN BY
EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY...BECMG VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISHING. MONDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT POSSIBLE
MVFR IN RW AND SW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT
OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST MEASURABLE
SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST
SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL
TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
5. 11/30/1953 83.6
6. 11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...NASH
