FXUS63 KSGF 050923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE COMING WEEK REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AND THE COLD SIDE
OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN POSSIBLY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 

TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE NICEST DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 40S THOUGH IT WILL BE
A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE. EXPECTING THE SWITCH
FROM DRIZZLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHALLOW AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOIST LAYER ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION AT THIS
TIME. EVEN IF SOME ICE CAN FIND ITS WAY INTO THE CLOUDS SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THAT SAID...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION
WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH I DID TEMPER
IT WITH THE GFS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ISSUE WITH HOW THE GFS
IS HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW THE GFS
DEVELOPS SEEMS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE
EXPECTED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND
JET STRUCTURE INDICATED BY THE GFS. THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A
MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DO THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS THEN SLIDE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE THIS SYSTEM WITH
WARMER AIR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY RETURNING AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE DETERMINED...INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. 

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY EVENING WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT JLN.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$