FXUS64 KFWD 152113
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ....UPPER 20S IN THE
METROPLEX AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR WEST TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF
SHORE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF WACO...BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BLOCK NORTH TEXAS
OF ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
YESTERDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN RETROGRADING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH DOWN FROM CANADA. THE GFS KEPT THE TROUGH AND
COLDEST AIR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND THE ECMWF
BROUGHT A STRONGER TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD AIR IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TODAYS 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE GFS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
THE BITTER COLD AIR THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  28  56  35  59  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
WACO, TX              32  54  37  60  39 /   5   5  10  10   5 
PARIS, TX             27  52  32  58  35 /   5   0   5   5   5 
DENTON, TX            25  54  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          26  53  30  59  33 /   0   0   0   5   0 
DALLAS, TX            30  55  37  61  42 /   0   0   0   5   0 
TERRELL, TX           30  54  36  61  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
CORSICANA, TX         32  54  35  59  37 /   5   0   5  10   5 
TEMPLE, TX            36  53  38  60  37 /  10  10  10  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/85