FXUS62 KCAE 042100
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION WITH REGIONAL WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING THE RAIN STILL IN FL AND SOUTHERN GA.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND MARCHING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN DURING THE LATE EVENING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND BY
MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE LAST ONE DO
NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH
AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FL DURING AND TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TOP OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE LIGHT
WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN DOMINANT FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE
PATTERN ACTIVE WHILE A LARGE BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP SYSTEMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. ON MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE ON A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MARCH
THROUGH SC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY AND
SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL LOWER TO MVFR 02Z-04Z THIS
EVENING AND BECOME IFR 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME AS RAIN MOVES INTO TAF
SITES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
