FXUS61 KBGM 010536
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. A TEMPORARY LULL
IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AS OF 922 PM...INITIAL AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAS
ENDED. A NEW PLUME OF VERY LIGHT LAKE SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY AS THE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BACK A BIT. ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER OVER NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND WESTERN
ONEIDA COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE NOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THAT IS CAUSING A DECENT AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW TO BREAK OUT. UPSTREAM OBS NEAR TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN SHOW
THAT VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM IN THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW.
THE AREA OF SNOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL IMPACT OUR AREA NEAR
DAYBREAK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM INDICATED A CONCERN THAT THIS
AREA MAY BRIEFLY COME DOWN AS A BURST OF SNOW FOR THE MORNING RUSH.
THE BUFKIT PROFILES AT KBGM SHOWED GOOD RH AND OMEGA INTERSECTING
THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BUT DID LACK GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS CAST SOME DOUBT AS THE PARAMETERS DON'T
MATCH UP QUITE AS WELL. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z NAM 700 RH FIELDS AND
700 VORTICITY SEEM TO MATCH UP WELL WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW.
WILL USE THIS AS A GUIDE GIVEN IT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ASIDE FROM LAKE EFFECT
CONCERNS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE BEST LIFT
STAYS NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE AND WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS HERE.
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE PROFILES ON THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM...WORDED
THE ZONES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AROUND RUSH HOUR.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT GIVEN THE
TIMING...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WRF/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 260-270 FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. H85 TEMPS INITIALLY OF -6 TO -7C WILL
BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AS LAKE/H85
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS APPROACH 14C BY LATE MORNING. QUICK LOOK AT
BUFR CROSS SECTIONS CENTERED AT KSYR AND KGTB DO SHOW AN OMEGA
COUPLET CO-LOCATED WITH THE MAX SNOW GROWTH REGION AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER FEEL THE BULK OF THIS FORCING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ANY EVENT...AM ANTICIPATING A DECENT LAKE
BAND TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. MAIN CAVEAT TO A DECENT SNOWFALL WILL BE
WARMING H85 TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A
GENERAL 1-2" (SUB ADVISORY) SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY...WITH VALUES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU
GO. FEEL THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KSYR BASED ON
EXPECTED WIND TRAJECTORIES...HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE ON WED AS H50 RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. 925 TEMPS WARM TO ROUGHLY 4-5C WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE TENN/OHIO RVR VLYS
AS THE DEEP (987 MB) LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS STILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE
WRF TAKING THE MAIN SFC LOW WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE FEATURE RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY.
IN ANY EVENT...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL RAIN INITIALLY WITH RAIN LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW BY
LATE THU MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARDS -10 TO -11C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL
INDICATION SUGGEST THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
TUG HILL AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WELL ANTICIPATED COLD AND AND UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKES...WILL LAST THROUGH THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING THAT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY.
WITH A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THROUGH 500 MB ASIDE
FROM EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MOST OF THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TOWARD WATERTOWN FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
BUT THE THINKING STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMILAR. THE DIFFERENCE
LIES WITH THE UPPER TROF AS THE EURO DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW DUE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING A BROAD DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST. THE GFS DOES NOT CUT OFF THE LOW AND INSTEAD
SUGGESTS THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS. IN EITHER CASE WINDS WILL VEER MORE INTO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF
THE LAKE SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
FAR OUT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BUT WINDS MAY
VEER ENOUGH TO ALSO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...INCLUDING
THE SYRACUSE AREA. LAKE DELTA T'S AROUND 20 SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME SO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED FOR DECENT LAKE SNOWS.
HPC HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SEEM A BIT TOO COLD WITH BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS SHOWING 925S AROUND -5.5C WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY WITH 925S HOLDING
STEADY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC TROF MVG INTO WRN NY COULD TRIGGER SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
NY TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG AS IT PASSES THRU. BUD THE
TROF...SOME LES PSBL BUT FLOW FAVORS THE BANDS TO BE NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...SO NO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. SO...VFR XPCTD
FOM ARND MIDDAY ON ALL SITES AS WEAK HIPRES BLDS IN. TO THE
SOUTH...AVP SHD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT AS ALL THE PCPN STAYS NORTH.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING SSW/SW AROUND
06Z THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED..VFR.
WED NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN
THUR....MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
THUR NGT...IFR SNOW LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE MVFR.
FRI...MVFR/IFR KSYR- KRME LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...MONDAY EVENING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW CONTINUES. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE
MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AVERAGE SNOWFALL FOR NOVEMBER IS 11.1
INCHES. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING
DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS
GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 279 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 30TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN SYRACUSE IS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD SET-UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...HEDEN
