FXUS61 KBGM 091620
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1120 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...COLD AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND
WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS STEADY
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE
FREEZING MOST PLACES. NEXT BIG CONCERN IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
STUEBEN...NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES...WITH WIND ADVISORIES REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME THIS
AFTERNOON THAN BECOME VERY STRONG AGAIN BY TONIGHT AS 971 MB
CYCLONE REACHES JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE 50 KNOTS OF WIND ARND
4-6KFT WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES RIGHT TO THE GROUND AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS INDICATES THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. IN ADDTN...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
TENDS TO FUNNEL STRGR ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AND ENHANCE
WIND FLOW NW OF THE APPLCNS. HENCE WARNINGS IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL ENUF TO MEET ADVY CRITERIA.
AS FOR PRECIP...I SEE SCT SHRA MAINLY INTO THE EVENING. MAJOR DRY
SLOT HAS ENGULFED THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A SHRT WAVE ARRIVING BY
21Z WITH SIGNFT COOLING ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT
SHRA. SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO BLO 0C BY 21Z ACRS NC PA ON THE NAM.
THE GFS IS MORE STBL. LI/S ARE POSITIVE SUGGESTING ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. I CUD SEE A BAND OF SHRA W/ A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WORKING INTO SC NY/NE PA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z. WILL ADD TO GRIDS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR THE AREA THIS EVNG BFR BL COOLS ENUF FOR
ALL SNOW AFT 03Z. FLOW WILL ALIGN FM 240-250...KEEPING LK EFFECT
WELL NORTH OF FA INITIALLY. MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS DROP INTO FINGER
LKS TWD DAYBREAK BUT CHCS OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ARE SLIM TO NONE
THRU TONIGHT AS SHEAR IS VRY STRONG AND FLOW STILL SWRLY ENUF TO
KEEP IT MORE CONFINED ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
SW WINDS WILL INCRS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SNDGS FOR LK PLAIN INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
WIND ADVISORY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MIXING WILL BE PRESENT AND WINDS
JUST OFF THE SFC INCRS TO 35 AND EVENTUALLY NR 40KTS DRG THE DAY
THUR AND INTO THUR NGT. WITH TIMING STILL 18-24 HRS AWAY AND WINTER
HEADLINES CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL PASS ON ISSUING WIND HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. HWVR WILL KEEP WORDING IN HWO AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO
ISSUE ONCE OTHER HEADLINES EXPIRE.
FLOW NEVER QUITE ALIGNS ITSELF TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LES ACRS NRN
ZONES ON THURSDAY PER LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE
SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR FINGER LKS AND MOHAWK VLY BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED DRG THE DAY.
MAY FINALLY SEE LE DROP INTO NRN ONEIDA THUR NGT...ALONG WITH LK
ERIE BAND EXTENDING INTO FINGER LKS. ALTHO TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HEADLINES...WILL ALSO MENTION LK EFFECT SNOW FOR TUG HILL IN HWO AS
IT MAY BE AN EXTNDD PD OF LAKE SNOWS IN THE AREA THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD ADD UP TO A QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR AND PRECIPITATION...CONSISTING OF SN...FZRA...AND RA...LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE WEATHER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING TO MVFR. VIS ARE
FLUCTUATING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND ARE...OF COURSE...LOWEST WITHIN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A TRANSITION EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE EVENT TO FZRA AND THEN RA...SOMETIME AFTER 15Z IN NY.
SOME AREAS IN NE PA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SWITCH TO FZRA AND RA.
TONIGHT...AS CEILINGS BEGIN TO CLEAR...THERE MAY BE SOME FG
FORMATION.
WINDS ARE SPORADICALLY GUSTING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THEY
LOOK TO BE REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THE 20KTS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
RULE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER
TONIGHT AND STRONG GUSTS FROM THE SW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WED EVENING...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM W TO E. STRONG FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY KRME/KSYR. REST OF AREA PRIMARILY MVFR/VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW HAS ENDED AT 287 DAYS. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAD NOT
HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY
24TH. SINCE MIDNIGHT...THE AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 3.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...THUS THE STREAK IS OVER. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE
THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE
AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 287 DAYS FEB 25TH TO DEC 8TH
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ023>025-044>046-055>057-062.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
CLIMATE...EMH
