FXUS62 KILM 291440
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SUNDAY...IMAGERY FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS SCOOTING
ACROSS GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FLYING
OVER THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...BUT AN UPSTREAM
AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP RH LEVELS FAIRLY
HIGH ABOVE 20KFT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SKIRT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER QUIET AMID THE
GROWING RETURN WIND FLOW THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
LOOKS ON TARGET THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKY COVER TRENDS SUGGESTING A
DECREASE IN OVERALL HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE PM HOURS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE NEARING THE REGION GOES OCEAN BOUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN THE LATEST RUNS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THIS...THERE EXISTS ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND RESULTS IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES SHOULD BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD.
THROUGH 00Z...LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND CLOUD FREE.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE...MID-LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS 15-16Z. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS AROUND 00Z ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED. AS THE SURFACE INVERSION INITIALLY SETS UP THIS EVENING
WINDS SHOULD BECOME VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR CALM. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG FORM WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. CRE WOULD SEEM THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO THIS OCCURRENCE ATTM DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE TERMINAL AS A RESULT OF
ONSHORE WINDS EARLIER IN THE DAY. BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT ATTM AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPEEDS OF 15-25
KNOTS DEVELOPING SHOULD PROVIDE HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION
AFTER 06Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET FROM 0-20NM OFFSHORE. MOST OF THIS WAVE ENERGY
IS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT SW CHOP ON THE WATERS WITH AN UNDERLYING BUT
WEAK SE SWELL. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE MANAGEABLE WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW WINDS. PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE 4 FOOT SEAS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN WINDS KICK UP TO 15-20 KT RANGE FROM SW...HIGHEST SEAS
OFFSHORE...AND THE MOST PROTECTED AREAS NEAR SHORE NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
MODERATE SW WIND FLOW DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SW FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT MONDAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME NW AS THE FRONT
PASSES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO 5 FT AT THE PEAK OF THE EVENT BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEAS DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FEET BEFORE BEGINNING TO
BUILD AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A ROUGH DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHIFTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FEET. AFTER THE LOW
PASSES...DIMINISHING W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FALLING SEAS
SUCH THAT WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR
LESS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIKEC
SHORT TERM..RICK
LONG TERM...RICK
AVIATION....MIKER
