FXUS63 KBIS 252201
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND ONGOING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL BE A MULTI MODEL BLEND.
ALSO...SINCE PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN...GRIDS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. 

CURRENTLY...A POWERFUL/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SPINNING IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. 

HEADLINES WERE NOT CHANGED DUE TO WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS WIND SPEEDS GUST TO
40 MPH ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. ALSO...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AND ONE MILE WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A TROWAL OVERHEAD. 

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE REGION.

ON GOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AROSE THE AREA AND WILL 
LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER MONDAY 
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH 
AMERICA. THE EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEMS 
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS IS LESS 
EXCITED AND CONTINUES TO STICK WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION 
BUT STILL HINTS AT WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL 
AREA. WHICHEVER SOLUTION VERIFIES...IT WILL REMAIN COLD DUE TO THE 
RECENT SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING DURING THE 
WORKWEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL GREATLY 
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS 
DEPICTED TO MOVE THROUGH. DID MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY WHEN THE EC HINTS AT THE STRONGER CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE 
STATE.     

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE LOW IN IOWA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHICH IS BRINGING 
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE KJMS...KBIS...KMOT...KDIK...AND KISN. 
MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJMS...KBIS...KDIK..AND KMOT 
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF MILE AT TIMES AND OCCASIONAL LOW 
CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KISN SATURDAY 
MORNING. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR 
NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ001-002-
009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DC/SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...DC