FXUS63 KMKX 302025
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
225 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ON WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH. FAIRLY GOOD GRADIENT SO TEMPS SHOULD
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SPLIT FLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. 

.WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON MOVEMENT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
UPPER LOW AND PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
STILL TAKING A SOUTH TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT HAS NUDGED NORTH A BIT ON
THE ECMWF. NAM AND CRAS MODEL MODEL ARE MUCH FARTHER NORTH...WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACK EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WELL WITHIN THE TRACK FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...SREF ALSO PUTS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH 0.25 INCH LINE REACHING KENOSHA.
CRAS PUTS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENHANCED
IR CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL HAVE MAINLY SNOW...BUT SOME
LAKE EFFECT WARMING WOULD PUT A RAIN MIX IN LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.
CRAS DEVELOPS MAJOR STORM WITH 975 MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...WITH OVER AN INCH QPF FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE NORTHERN TRACK FULLY...AND NOT READY TO
JUMP ON THE MAJOR STORM SOLUTION OF THE CRAS...BUT THINK POPS
NEED TO RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. 

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...BUT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT WITH
SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING. 

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL DECK APPROACHING FROM NRN MN AND NW WI. THIS 
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. 
BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE 
SOUTHERN WI TAF LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID CLOUDS WILL SWEEP THOUGH 
TONIGHT.  

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED. CLEARING 
SKIES HAVE LED TO BETTER MIXING. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A 
LITTLE LATER TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW DATA SHOWING GRADIENT STILL FAIRLY 
TIGHT AT 06Z AND BUFKIT SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT TYPE WINDS A BIT 
LONGER. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR