FXUS65 KTWC 302123
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WAS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING
IT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...STILL EXPECTING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT 2 PM MST...RADAR
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKING WEST TO
NORTHWEST OUT OF EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES TOWARD
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TUCSON
YET TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...NO WEATHER CONCERNS AS A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT SOME WARMING IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL THE REST
OF THE WEEK. NEXT WEEK IS STARTING TO SET UP WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD AFTER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 2-5K FT AGL WITH MTN TOPS OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE. PERIODS OF SHRA/SHSN DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS GUSTING
TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM MST TODAY FOR ZONE AZZ035 ABOVE
6000 FEET.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
