FXUS64 KMOB 260354 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.MARINE...BASED OFF LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL HI RES MODEL
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OVER BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KT WELL OFFSHORE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES THROUGH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND MARINE WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MOBILE BAY.
ALSO A TOUGH CALL ON EXACTLY WHEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
(LATE AFTN OR EVENING.) GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING THE ADVISORY WITH THE EVENING PACKAGE AND LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THOROUGHLY REVIEW THE BRAND NEW GUIDANCE TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION/TIMING. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THIS FAR
OUT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE STRENGTH OF WINDS/BUILDING
SEAS. THUS...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW UNTIL THIS
UNCERTAINTY CAN BE RESOLVED. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOME DEEPLY MIXED WITH STRONGER WINDS PRESENT ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 34/JFB
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A COOL...DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING CREATING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AT INLAND SITES. SITES WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES INLAND OF THE COAST WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FROST AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S. /08 JVW
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY SATURDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
PUSHED EAST ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
HIGHS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL. RETURN FLOW IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...STILL APPEAR MOST LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EVEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
DEEP...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN SPLIT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
AREA WEATHER. /08 JVW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A COOL...DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION TO WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME. /08 JVW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 40 61 33 60 / 05 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 43 62 41 62 / 05 05 05 00
DESTIN 49 62 47 62 / 05 05 05 00
EVERGREEN 36 60 32 60 / 05 05 05 00
WAYNESBORO 35 59 30 59 / 05 05 00 00
CAMDEN 37 59 33 58 / 05 05 05 00
CRESTVIEW 38 63 32 61 / 05 05 05 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
ROSA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
