FXUS61 KRLX 251940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF CHRISTMAS
DAY DIMINISH TONIGHT. TURNING GRADUALLY COLDER OVER THE 
WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAH HUMBUG...WORKING ON CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN. WHITE CHRISTMAS DAWN
MAINLY FROM N CENTRAL WV AND THE MTNS INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE..BUT
NOT IN SE OHIO...NE KY...AND A BIG CHUNK OF WRN WV INCLUDING
PARKERSBURG... CHARLESTON...AND HUNTINGON.

CANCELED THE ICE STORM WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING GO THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME
OF 4 PM. WIND GUSTS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE 40
TO 55 MPH RANGE.

HAVE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSED LEX AND LOZ NEARING JKL AT 19Z. HAVE
THE FRONT SLOWLY DOWN A BIT IN THE S WIND FLOW...AND CROSSING OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES NOT UNTIL AROUND 06Z.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.

WITH 500 MB VORT MAX STILL SWINGING NE THRU KY INTO OHIO THIS
EVENING...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT.

HAVE ONLY SCT TO MAYBE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
BKN MAINLY OVER OHIO. SO A FAIRLY DESCENT LATE DECEMBER DAY FIGURED.

WENT A BIT COLDER ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR MAX TEMP WITH
850 MB TEMPS FIGURED TO BE AROUND MINUS 5. ALSO LOWERE MTN MIN
TEMPS FOR 12Z SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 850 MB TEMP AOA ZERO C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SHOW 500 MB TROUGH GRADUALLY SINKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE 
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
BRING IN COLDER AIR...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS. WILL 
INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO BETTER REFLECT THESE 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
PUSH EAST OF REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER....NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...WITH 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING 
THROUGH THURSDAY.  

MODELS SUGGEST AN SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY...WITH
THE STORM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST NEW
YEARS DAY.  

HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY USED...WITH SOME TWEAKS TO 
REFLECT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SUBSIDES FROM S TO N 21Z TO 02Z. 

STILL HAVE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EXITING NE OF THE EKN TO BKW CORRIDOR 
BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN 
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES AFTER 00Z...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z. 

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN TO OVC.  VSBY ONLY 3 TO 5 
MILES IN PCPN.  EKN FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT...AS WIND 
DIMINISHED AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...SOME LOW STRATUS 
AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES MAY FORM IN THESE DEEPER AND STILL SNOW COVERED 
VALLEYS AFTER 03Z.

14Z TO 18Z SATURDAY SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT.  VSBY 
UNRESTRICTED.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>038-
     046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB