FXUS63 KLMK 091954
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
...WIND AND WIND CHILLS THE MAIN THREATS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALLOWED FOR
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY...AS WELL AS GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN
SPOTS. POWER OUTAGES OCCURRED...AND WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WERE
REPORTED DOWNED AS WELL. STILL...WINDS ARE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE WSW
AT 25-35 WITH GUSTS MAINLY FROM 40-50 MPH. WE WILL THUS LET THE HIGH
WIND WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER 25-35 MPH WILL GUSTS WILL STILL OCCUR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 20-25 BY THURSDAY
DAWN.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED FROM THE UPPER 50S THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 40 OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW 30S OVER THE NW CWA.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPS HAVE
LED TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUNDS...BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
PROBLEMS SINCE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH 00Z...AND JUST FLURRIES TONIGHT
MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE NE AFTER THAT...SO HAVE
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL READINGS BY 00Z COULD BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN CWA...AND WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BY DAWN THURSDAY. DRESS THE KIDDIES
WARMLY IN THE MORNING!
FOR THURSDAY...THE SUN WILL BE DECEIVING BECAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE SOUTH. COMBINE THESE COLD TEMPS WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
15-20MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH...AND YOU HAVE RESULTANT WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A VERY
COLD THURSDAY TO THE SAY THE LEAST.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION ON THUR/THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING GOOD RAD COOLING AND
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS
FOR LOWS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
USUALLY COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR THURS NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION...WE/LL STAY DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC WAVE AND A NORTHERN STREAM SFC
WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE CONUS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THE NORTHERN
WAVE SHOULD PULL AT LEAST SOME LIGHT MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA (FA) ALTHOUGH THE MOST PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN FA FUELED BY THE SOUTHERN LOW. QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND A FEW
HUNDREDS TO 0.25 INCHES TOTAL FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE BEST TIMING AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ON FRI TO MID-UPPER 40S ON SUN.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC WAVE FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AND PHASE INTO A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 6Z GFS WAS COLD WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP FOR OUR AREA AND
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE WARM. SINCE THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WARM
THESE SYSTEMS AND KEEP THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED TO OUR NORTH...WILL
MAKE THIS SYSTEM FOR MON/TUES A RAINER FOR NOW. HOWEVER COLDER AIR
LOOKS TO FILTER IN BEHIND IT AS WE DROP BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS
BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
NEEDLESS TO SAY IT'S NOT THE GREATEST AIR TRAVEL DAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
TURBULENCE FOR PILOTS...AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LANDING CONDITIONS
GIVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY FROM 40-50 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ROUGHLY 20Z...AND WILL SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS 00Z
TONIGHT.
UNTIL THEN...STRATO-CU WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING FROM 2500-4000 GENERALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT SDF AND POSSIBLY LEX...WHERE VSBYS WOULD BE
REDUCED TO MVFR. HOWEVER MAY JUST CARRY VCSH SINCE MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
STRATO-CU MAY STICK AROUND TONIGHT AT SDF AND LEX...BUT MOST LIKELY
NOT BWG. IF NOT BEFORE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AS GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST. SUSTAINED
WINDS 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........AL
