FXUS64 KAMA 050452 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...IF THE WINDS DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT...BR MAY
DEVELOP BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THINK PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 15G25KT...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAMA ESPECIALLY.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
UPDATE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING...AND WERE INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TYPICALLY HALT OR SLOW DOWN THE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROCESS...THE
DRIER AIR AND CLOUDLESS SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP DOWN A
BIT FURTHER. WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND RELATED WEATHER ELEMENTS
ACCORDINGLY.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOURS...AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT UNTIL 15Z. ALSO AFTER
15Z...EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SJOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...INTENSIFYING THE LEE TROF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE...DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LEE CYCLONE WILL EJECT
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS BACK TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PANHANDLES VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES. MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID TEENS ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT LIKE THIS MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE ON
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN AS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST DOWNSTATE. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL IT BE A
LIGHT SNOW OR IF A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
RESULTS IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE...I WENT WITH
SNOW FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE FAIRLY COLD. PRECIP CHANGES
INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. STRONG H5-H3 Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THE
THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
AN APPROACHING H25 JET STREAK. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONE MORE COLD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND WARMING WITH A WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS.
ESSENTIALLY SIDED WITH THE MEX FOR NOW WITH PLENTY OF TIME AHEAD TO
ASSESS THIS SYSTEM.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/08
