FXUS61 KBTV 291742
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION BUT FALLING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 949 AM EST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FCST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL/DRY CONDITIONS. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN AN INVERSION LAYER 3-5 KFT.
LIKEWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BASED ON
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THRU THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK RATHER
QUICKLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING TO
BRING HIGHEST POPS NORTH AS BEST FORCING WILL ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE LOW TRACK AND OUR CWA EXPERIENCING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM A
WARM FRONT.
WITH INCREASING S-SW GRADIENT TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY
STEADY OR WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE EVENING IN NY...BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN
VERMONT EXCEPT AROUND MIDNIGHT IN NE VT. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 32-40.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP 06-12Z MONDAY
BUT WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND MOS SUGGEST THIS IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. THERE IS JUST THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE NOW THAT A FEW HOLLOWS IN FAR NE VT COULD BE DOWN
AROUND FREEZING. LATEST GFS MOS AT KBML SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY
OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN ONLY A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS. SO HAVE
GONE WITH JUST SOME RAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH. WITH MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING TO REDUCE PRECIP AMOUNTS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...AGAIN WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 40S MONDAY MORNING BACK INTO THE 30S. MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER SITUATION WITH GENERALLY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER BUT STILL SOME
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SUPPOSED
TO...IN THE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EST SUNDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS. MAINLY A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE
EAST OF NEW JERSEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
ACROSS CAPE COD AND WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
THURSDAY... AS THE ECMWF WARMER THAN THE GFS. HAVE MENTIONED RAIN
OR SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE
THE GFS MODEL IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AND SUGGESTING MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF SUNDAY WITH BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LATE THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MVFR DECK WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
RAIN AT KMSS AROUND 02Z...REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD
BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...MAINLY FROM KBTV
WEST. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR KRUT/KMPV LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO 16-18Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z MON THRU 00Z WEDS...SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
00Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
