FXUS61 KCAR 240731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
231 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN INTO CANADA SUNDAY
AS IT PULLS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. ONE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ARCTIC
AIR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM IS TIMING THE END OF SN 
SHWRS ACROSS E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ERLY THIS MORN AND FOLLOWED 
BY WHERE AND HOW LONG SC DECK HOLDS ON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF --SN/-SHSN BEGINNING TO 
FRAGMENT AS IT BEGINS MOVING SE OUT OF E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OF 
THE FA. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNSH OVR DOWNEAST AND 
COASTAL WATERS ERLY THIS MORN...AND UPDATE LATER IF NECESSARY IF 
SNSH END/DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. ELSEWHERE...SCT SN
FLURRIES MAY LINGER SPCLY OVR NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO THE MORN.

OTHERWISE...THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW PERSISTENT SC CLD DECK 
WILL BE ACROSS NRN AREAS. BASED ON SAT IMAGERY...WE WILL INITIALLY 
KEEP WRN AND FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA MCLDY INTO THE AFT HRS...
ALTHOUGH BUFKIT INDICATES THIN LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 925-850 MB...
SUGGESTING THAT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE OVC COULD MATERIALIZE
ANYTIME AFT ERLY TO MID MORN. ALTHOUGH N SFC WINDS BACKING TO NW
KEEP FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF SC CLD DECK ACROSS NRN AREAS...
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD RESULT IN SKIES
BECOMING MSLY SUNNY BY AFT THERE.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY WARMER THAN 
ANTICIPATED ERLY THIS MORN AS THE MODIFIED ATLC MARITIME AIR HAS 
HUNG IN OVR THE FA...XCPT THE FAR WEST. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE HAD TO 
RAISE LOWS ERLY THIS MORN SPCLY OVR THE NE HLF...RESULTING IN A SLGT 
RAISING OF HI TEMPS IN THIS AREA FOR TDY. BELIEF IS THAT DRIER AND 
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK TO CAP HI TEMPS FROM 
EXCEEDING MID 30S ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFT. WINDS WILL BE 
STRONGEST OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA TDY...SPCLY THE COAST WHERE THE 
LARGEST MSL PRES SURGE WILL OCCUR.

WITH AT LEAST SOME CLRG ANTICIPATED FOR NRN PTNS OF THE FA TNGT AND 
MCLR SKIES ELSEWHERE AND WITH DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE 
APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT... 
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR RADITIONAL COOLING OVR 
FRESH SN PACK...SO WE WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE SPCLY OVR 
FAVOR COLD LOW LYING VALLEYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRY AND
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL CREST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A VERY
LARGE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL BE
PULLING AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW NORTH AND SNOW...SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST
WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE PUSHES
AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDING FRONT...WELL AHEAD OF THE MIDWESTERN STORM.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY GIVING AROUND 
A HALF INCH OF QPF AS WARMER AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWS SNOW OR
SLEET QUICKLY TURNING TO RAIN DOWNEAST. SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD
OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...POSSIBLY GIVING AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE
WARMER AIR SURGES IN TURNING PRECIPITATION OVER TO A PERIOD OF
RAIN ALONG WITH WIND...FOG AND DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MODERATELY COLDER AIR. 
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN ROAR THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING POSSIBLY WITH A SNOW SQUALL FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPS AND LIKELY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. 
&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS AND/OR VSBYS WITH SC DECK AND 
DEPARTING SN SHWRS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR LATER THIS MORN OR BY ERLY 
AFT AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE SC DECK LIFTS ABV 3 KFT OR SCTRS OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONT THRU TNGT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN. LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MODELS INDICATE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA 
RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE BACK SIDE 
GRADIENT OF THE DEPARTING SFC TROF CROSSES THE WATERS...AND WILL 
LIKELY CONT AT SCA...MAINLY IN GUSTS AND SEAS...THRU ERLY EVE.
AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LATER TNGT. WITH NO 
HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR FRI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A STRONG SCA OR POSSIBLY A GALE MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY AS AN OCCLUDING FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. A GALE MAY
THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES
THROUGH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER