FXUS65 KBYZ 151612
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
912 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AREAS THIS MORNING CREATING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND
MAKE NO CHANGES THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY FOR
SEVERAL REASONS. THE ARCTIC IS RETREATING WHICH SHOULD HELP
THINGS WARM UP BUT THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF SNOW COVER AROUND
WHICH WILL INHIBIT WARMING IN SOME PLACES. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS GOING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. SOLUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES SHOWING UP IN THE LONG RANGE.
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING ENERGY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LIFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION. SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FORCING THE PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DRY. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE MOIST AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SNOW OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
COLD AIR INTRUSION BUT HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL READINGS
FOR NOW. WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW
AND WILL SEE HAVE FURTHER MODEL RUNS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.
RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
CONTINUED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS.
GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS WILL SEVERELY HAMPER VISIBILITIES NEAR KLVM
DUE TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW. AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...STATION TEMPERATURES AT KLVM WENT FROM POSITIVE 3 DEGREES
TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR DUE TO THE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY ALSO BE PRESENT DUE TO SOME LIGHT
OCCASIONAL SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR ALL OTHER
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026 024/040 027/039 022/037 022/039 024/034 025/032
1/M 02/W 02/J 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B
LVM 038 031/044 030/039 023/037 025/040 027/033 027/031
0/Q 02/W 23/J 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 024 014/041 019/039 017/036 016/041 015/035 016/032
1/M 02/W 02/J 21/B 00/B 01/B 11/B
MLS 017 009/032 015/033 014/031 014/035 014/029 015/026
1/M 02/W 12/J 21/B 00/B 01/B 11/B
4BQ 023 012/039 018/038 017/037 016/039 017/033 016/032
1/M 00/B 02/J 31/B 10/B 01/B 11/B
BHK 014 005/035 015/034 015/032 010/032 011/026 012/023
1/M 02/W 02/J 31/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 029 011/042 018/038 016/036 014/040 015/035 015/033
1/M 00/B 03/J 31/B 00/B 01/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
