FXUS64 KMEG 282348
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO PREVENT MEMPHIS AND JACKSON
FROM HAVING A RECORD DRIEST NOVEMBER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND OUT OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE MORE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY AND COOL WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED
SO KEPT VCSH GOING AT ALL SITES IN LIEU OF A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 14Z-15Z AT ALL SITES. STILL BELIEVE
IFR CIGS WILL PUSH IN AFTER 00Z MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 49 64 46 53 / 0 50 90 30
MKL 45 61 43 50 / 0 40 90 20
JBR 46 60 42 50 / 0 50 90 10
TUP 43 64 50 55 / 10 30 80 70
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
