FXUS63 KICT 261205
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING S/SE AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF
AN INTENSE CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY...PERIODS OF -SN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE
VSBYS HAVE FLUCTUATED CONSIDERABLY AT KRSL & KSLN BETWEEN VFR & IFR
WITHIN A 15-20 MIN. WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO DISTURBANCES
EJECTING SE ACROSS KS AT 26/12Z...EXPECT VSBYS TO STABLIZE AT KRSL
& KSLN LATE THIS MORNING...BY WHICH TIME AREAS OF -SN WILL TRAVERSE
SE KS. AS SUCH FLUCTUATIONS IN VSBY ARE LIKELY AT KCNU. WITH THE
INTENSE CYCLONE GYRATING JUST W OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...EXPECT
ONLY GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN W/NW WINDS OVER ALL 5 TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AM...CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE
TUES INTO WED.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LWR GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY SUN-SUN NGT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER TROFFING MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO. A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS UPPER LOW WILL PASS SEWD OUT OF NEBRASKA ACROSS KANSAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST AND STRONGEST VORT LOBE CAN BE SEEN PER WV IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AM OVER SRN NEBRASKA...MOVING SLOWLY S-SEWD AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NEBRASKA/KANSAS ATTM. LIFT IN THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS IS RATHER
WEAK...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...THEREFORE THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 2 MILES.
HIGHER POPS (~60%) TARGETED FOR CNTRL KS...TAPERING TO 25% NEAR
THE OK BORDER. AROUND 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR
I-70 IN CNTRL KS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER S. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NWRLY WINDS TO FLIRT WITH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES OF CNTRL
KS EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. THE 2ND VORT
LOBE PROGGED TO PASS THRU THE AREA THIS EVE AND MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS WEAKER VORT. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND IN THE COLD N-NWRLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH COLDEST READINGS ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT ACROSS SERN KS WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER EXISTS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
UPPER TROFFING OVER SERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LIFT NEWD
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE BAJA
COAST TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
NEXT SNOW-PRODUCING FEATURE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
MON NGT THROUGH TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY
YIELD SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN OUR SWRN COUNTIES LATE TUES PM...BUT
THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME ACROSS TUES NGT INTO
WED. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY START BRIEFLY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUES...PROJECTED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
SNOW EVENT IN OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHEST POPS PER DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PROGGED SHORTWAVE PATH WILL BE
IN S-CNTRL/SERN KS. DID RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THERE. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THIS PERIOD OVER THIS WEEKENDS
NUMBERS...THEY WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 16 29 15 / 40 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 27 17 29 15 / 40 10 10 10
NEWTON 27 15 28 14 / 40 20 10 10
ELDORADO 27 15 28 13 / 40 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 16 30 15 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 25 14 27 14 / 60 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 26 16 28 16 / 50 10 10 10
SALINA 25 13 27 13 / 60 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 26 15 28 14 / 40 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 28 14 28 11 / 30 10 10 10
CHANUTE 27 14 26 11 / 40 20 10 10
IOLA 27 14 26 11 / 40 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 28 14 27 11 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
