FXUS64 KFWD 261943
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SHORT TERM/THROUGH MON NIGHT/...
DRY THROUGH THE PD. REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA OCCURRING IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SNOW PACK FROM CHRISTMAS EVE
SNOWFALL...IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND EXPECT ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY
STRADDLE EXTREME SE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER AS GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLS ENE AWAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN SPLIT-FLOW ALOFT SITUATES MON/MON NIGHT WITH A
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE GATHERING STRENGTH ACROSS SW CONUS/BAJA CA
REGION. TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC...THOUGH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER MON NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TUESDAY
MORNING UP SOME AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET/RAIN MIX
ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM/TUES AND BEYOND/...
ALL MED RANGE MODELS BEGIN LIFTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS MEXICO/W TX BIG BEND BY 12Z/DAYBREAK TUES...BEFORE DEVELOPING
A TX COASTAL DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF BROWNSVILLE/CORPUS CHRISTI BY
TUES EVENING. MEANWHILE...LIFT AND COOLING OF LAYER BELOW 700 MB
LIKELY TO RESULT IN WET-BULB COOLING AND HAVE MAINTAINED MORE OF A
WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NW HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON MOISTURE AND
DEPTH OF COLD AIR...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WINTRY MIX
THROUGH TUES NIGHT TIME FRAME PER AVERAGE THICKNESSES VALUES OF
SEVERAL MODELS.
IT APPEARS DEEPER COLD AIR SHUNTS NORTH OF THE BORDER MOSTLY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LITTLE WEARY OF THE COLUMN WARMING FULLY TO ABOVE
FREEZING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY ALL RAIN...BUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS BEHIND
DEPARTING COASTAL TROUGH. WE MAY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT/SPS TO FOREWARN OF THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE TUES/TUES NIGHT...AS MED RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO
AGREE ON TIMING OF SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENT. IF NOT...WE'LL DEFINITELY
ENHANCE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.
BROAD CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH STAYS BEHIND DEPARTING SFC SYSTEM
MAINTAINING A COLD FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL LOW LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT ENOUGH BY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY/BEYOND FOR CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST WITH EVENTUAL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA. MODELS DO DIVERGE FOR
WEEKEND FORECAST AND WILL KEEP DRY AS WELL.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 46 29 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 29 50 29 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 26 40 25 43 27 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 25 43 24 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 26 43 25 45 27 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 31 46 31 47 31 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 28 44 28 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 29 49 29 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 30 52 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
