FXUS61 KAKQ 260225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE HEARTLAND RESULTING IN A LARGE
SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW RAIN TAPERING OFF WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AS A PIECE OF MID
LEVEL DRYING SLOWLY ROTATES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION INLAND OF THE
COAST. MAY CONT TO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE WEST
OF I95 OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PCPN IS OVER. EAST OF
I95 PCPN CHCS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS ANTHR BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
SURGES NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. SOME OF THIS PCPN WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY BUT IS MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO NOT
EXPECTING WORSENING FLOOD CONDITIONS OVERNGT. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTS TO SURGE OVER EASTERN
AREAS. LOWS INLAND OVER SNOWPACK WILL DROP INTO UPPER 30S BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. FOG CUD ALSO BE A PROBLEM TNGT
ESPECIALLY WHERE WARM AIR OVERRIDES SNOWPACK. HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES
DURING THE EARLY MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT...KEPT MORN POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE FOR NOW BUT LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDCATE A QUICKER ENDING TO PCPN. A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MSTR...AND WITH WEAK DEC SUN ANGLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...WILL KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS SOUTH AND THIS MAY REACH UP INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/CNTRL VA BY MID/LATER AFTN. MILD WITH TMPS IN THE U40S NW
TO L60S SE.

SUN...DRY AND MILD. LOWS U20S-M30S. HIGHS U40S-M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED/DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TO START THE LAST WEEK OF 2009...USHERING IN
DRIER/COOLER WX INTO THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LTR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE UPR LOW...AND CONTINUED
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS W/BENIGN WX EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

MAJOR FORECAST FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS WITH MIDLVL LOW PRESSURE 
COMING ASHORE ALONG SO CAL/BAJA MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE SW CONUS 
TUE/WED. THIS COULD POSE A WINTER WX THREAT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
NEW YEARS EVE/DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TERMINALS MAINLY IFR LATE THIS EVE AND SHUD REMAIN SO OVRNGT. LIFR
CONDS ALSO LIKELY LATE TNGT FOR INLAND TAF SITES AS PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPS. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT EARLY SATURDAY UNTIL COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU AND SCOURS OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONVECTIVE WIND SURGE BRIELY PRODUCED GALE CONDITIONS AOUDN THE
SOUTHERN CHES BAY THIS EVE BUT WINDS HAVE EASED SLIGHTLY AS THIS
CONVECTIVE BAND MOVED OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT MARINE
HEADLINES WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALL ARAES OVRNGT AND MARGINAL
GALE FOR NORTHERN CSTL WATERS. 

SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THRU THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY COLD
SURGE WILL BRING NEAR OR ABV SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...