FXUS63 KPAH 110907
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...THEN PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY...A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO
WILL SET UP BRINGING WARMER AIR AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS OVER GENERALLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING BUT WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE THE
HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS CLEARLY THE WETTEST
MODEL HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...SO BUMPED UP POPS
THERE. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GRADUAL CHANGE FROM SW /220-240
DEGREES/ TO SOUTH /160-190 DEGREES/ WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. 

LIGHT FROST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON UNSHELTERED AND SHADED
AIRCRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST 1330 UTC.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

DB/JAP