FXUS63 KGID 281145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. MAIN STORY FOR TODAY LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE CURRENT WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE...ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO
CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE WITH
PLENTY OF UPS AND DOWNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN LATE NOVEMBER RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS OUR CWA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
AND ALONG WITH AN INCREASING NORTH WIND WILL MAKE THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOTICEABLE. 

PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK LIFT...BELIEVE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM BETTER SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TO REACH THE SFC. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE COOLING TEMPERATURES.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEEP SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH COOL WILL
ACTUALLY TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND OUR SEASONAL NORMS...IN THE LOWER
40S.

SFC HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY TURNING THE WINDS BACK
OUT OF A MORE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL IN TURN
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S TO END THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THESE LAST TWO
MONTHS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN VERY UNUSUAL WITH OUR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER SHAPING UP TO BE WARMER THAN OUR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN OCTOBER. A QUICK LOOK THROUGH THE RECORD BOOK
SHOWS THAT ONLY 1925 HAD SIMILAR CONDITIONS WHERE NOVEMBER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN IN OCTOBER.

THE WARM WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL TURN
CONDITIONS SHARPLY COLDER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO EVEN REACH THE FREEZING MARK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE WEATHER WILL BE COLD...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$