FXUS63 KLOT 270459
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1059 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
722 PM CST

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE CLEARING TONIGHT. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM
NEAR STL NORTH TO JUST EST OF DLH EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BASICALLY
JUST GO WITH SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION WITH TIMING OF THE CLEARING.
THIS WOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SE COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE PAST COUPLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THE CLEAR LINE SLOWING A BIT WHICH ISNT UNCOMMON FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF OVC LASTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT OVER SE CWA...IF
CLEARING CONTINUES TO SLOW THEN LOW TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UP
A HAIR FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CWA.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
1058 PM CST

0600 UTC TAFS...NO SIG WX PROBLEMS JUST PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. NW WINDS OCCASIONALLY G20 TO LOSE
GUSTINESS IN PREDAWN HRS.

UPPER LO EMBEDDED IN EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROF LOCATED JUST N OF
GEORGIAN BAY AT LATE EVE AND PROGGED TO MOVE SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE S PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF...JUST RECENTLY
BECOMING NEG TILT...SWEEPS OF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS.

VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF EMBEDDED LO AND MORE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER TROF HINDERS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA...THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CNTRL
ROCKIES ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE.

PROGS HAVE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY AT 12Z FRI...AND OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL TERMINALS AT 18Z. AS THE RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO CLEAR W TO E ACROSS THE AREA WITH RFD
LOOSING MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAWN...AND ORD AND MDW DURING MID TO
LATER MORNING HRS. THEREAFTER...ONLY SOME WAA MID AND HI CLOUDS TO
BE OVER THE REGION.

WITH MODELS SHOWING EVENTUAL FILLING OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE N
CHANNEL OF LK SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
MOVING NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN NW WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE WITH AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHING.
LIGHT WINDS TO BACK TO SW AND S AS RIDGE PASSES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVR TERMINALS DURING THE DAY FRI.

TRS

&&

.MARINE...
1251 PM CST

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DECREASE IN SIZE AND WEAKEN FRIDAY. AN INTENSE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND WILL MOVE INTO MAINE DURING THE DAY 
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WIND OF UP TO 30 KNOTS 
TODAY WILL DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 
WIND WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS..

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM 
     FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$